DYNAMICS OF MODERN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION 1

In the chapter " Union Management Dilemmas "of his book" Choice. World domination or global leadership " Z. Brzezinski, talking about the institutionalization of Asian regional cooperation, does not mention the SCO (pp. 117-174). Moreover, he emphasizes that the stability of the East Asian region "may be threatened by the growing power of a number of Asian states." In his opinion, there are no constraining "cooperative" structures responsible for regional security. This approach and other modern challenges pose special challenges for the SCO member States.

Why Z. Brzezinski ignores such a "cooperative" security structure as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)? Describing the region, he notes the following: "The burning mutual resentment of the nearest neighbors, combined with acute national feelings, look especially ominous against the background of the strategic vulnerability of the respective countries. Modern Asian powers operate in a rapidly changing world and a largely unstructured regional context, which lacks multilateral security cooperation mechanisms similar to those that exist in today's Europe and even in Latin America" [Brzezinski, 2006, p.145].

In our opinion, the answer lies in the following approach of this author :" If you draw a straight line from the Caspian Sea to Sakhalin, the Asian territory of Eurasia will be divided into two parts: to the north-extremely sparsely populated Siberia and the Russian Far East, where 30 - 35 million people live, and directly to the south - an extremely densely populated zone, where approximately 3 billion Chinese, Indians, and Muslims are concentrated" [Brzezinski, 2006, p.171].

It is obvious that the" Brzezinski Line " passes through the territory of the SCO countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Russia. However, these states are "discarded" by Brzezinski when structuring the Central and East Asian region for establishing regional security, economic integration, and comprehensive development. For the old "chess player" Brzezinski, these are all small pieces that can be ignored when analyzing the "Big Game in Asia", which, according to his ideas, the United States should win in the XXI century.

This approach of Brzezinski stems from the fact that when analyzing the current situation in Eurasia, he does not rely on the data of historical political and geographical knowledge (IPGP), which is one of the oldest areas of integrated research.-

1 The article is based on the report of the international conference "The Situation in Central Asia and the SCO", held by the Shanghai Institute of International Studies on November 15-16, 2007.

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scientific approach in modern political science [Shvedov, 2006]. In Russian science, this methodology is used precisely when analyzing the historical foundation on which the SCO is built [International Relations..., 1989].

Of course, when analyzing the development problems of the SCO, it is necessary to structure the Central Asian territory of the Organization as a zone of common interests of all participants of the organization. Identification of traditional and modern national and state interests is necessary to correlate them with the" corporate " interests of the SCO, taking into account the impact of both on political, economic and other decisions, for example in the field of security. If the participating states want to make the SCO an effective organization that does not allow a new round of the "Big Game in Asia", then "corporate" interests should, in my opinion, prevail over all others.

The dynamics of current international relations are determined by the main challenges facing humanity at the present stage-energy and ecology.

The universal energy concern has many facets, many facets and dimensions. Experts build a hierarchy of threats to global energy security in the following order: "The emerging lag in energy supply from the growth of energy consumption; increasing tension in providing energy needs for transport; increasing regional energy imbalances; increasingly severe interruptions in energy supply due to man-made disasters and systemic accidents; irreversible climate changes in regions and the planet as a whole "[Fortov, Makarov, Mitrova, 2007, p. 100].

Experts emphasize that " ensuring global energy security is impossible without dialogue and mutual openness at the level of states, the business world and the population." At the same time, the population of highly developed countries will have to (albeit with great difficulty) recognize the need to limit the current "energy-wasteful lifestyle". Academician V. E. Fortov and his colleagues draw attention to the fact that "when the standard of living of the current "golden billion" within one or two decades will approach another 3 billion. the current style of consumption will make the burden on the global energy sector unbearable at any real pace of scientific and technological progress " [ibid., p. 107].

I note that three of the four catch-up states listed above belong to the SCO countries. By the way, as for the "catch-up model" of development, interesting observations in connection with this phenomenon were made during the preparation of the conference "After Neoliberalism"held in May this year by the Institute of Eastern Europe (Moscow) together with the Social Science Research Council (USA). A number of researchers from Russia and the United States sent written texts. Our greatest interest was aroused by V. Popov's article "Beijing Consensus vs. Washington Consensus". Considering the current development of China, the author emphasizes that "for the first time in modern history, we are dealing with a successful catch-up development based on illiberal values, if not anti-liberal principles - on "Asian values", collectivist institutions in essence " [Prognoziev, 2007, p. 346].

If we talk about the energy sector in relation to the SCO's development prospects, let me remind you that at the meeting of the Heads of Government of the Organization's states in Tashkent on November 2, 2007, Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov called on the SCO countries to cooperate more actively in this area. At the same time, they suggested creating an energy club that could keep abreast of this cooperation. "Work on the creation of this non-governmental advisory body is already underway, but we would like more energetic actions from the relevant departments of our countries," ros stressed-

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The Latvian Prime Minister added that Russia's energy strategy is now being clarified, " we are building it for the period up to 2030, without changing the basic principles."

The same thesis was voiced in the speech of V. Zubkov at the Second Russian-Chinese Economic Forum at the highest level, held in Moscow on November 6-7, 2007, during the closing period of the Year of China in Russia. Special emphasis was placed on the energy sector, but not on raw materials, but on increasing the share of machinery products in Russian exports to China. "Over the past year, an impressive step has been taken in the development of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and China2," the Russian Prime Minister said. But both sides see the need to improve bilateral trade and economic ties. "It is necessary to increase the share of Russian machine and technical products in mutual supplies," V. Zubkov concluded [Rossiyskaya Gazeta, 7.11.2007, p. 2].

For this purpose, at the suggestion of the heads of state of the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China, a special body was created-the Russian-Chinese Chamber for Promoting Trade in Machine-technical and Innovative products. During the Forum, the Founding Congress of this Chamber was held. And already during the forum itself, agreements were signed for more than three billion dollars. Among these agreements, the energy sector has taken the main place. Atomstroyexport and Jiangsu Nuclear Power Corporation signed documents on the construction of the second stage of the Tianwan NPP. A framework agreement was signed for Techsnabexport to provide technical assistance for the construction of the 4th stage of a gas centrifuge plant in China, and a protocol was signed to the agreement between the governments of Russia and China on cooperation in the construction of a gas centrifuge plant for uranium enrichment for nuclear power in China.

In response, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said:: "We hope that Russian enterprises with their advantages in the field of energy, mechanical engineering, aviation and cosmonautics will be able to gain large shares in the Chinese market" [ibid.].

Before continuing my analysis, I would like to note that bilateral trade, economic, scientific and technical ties between the SCO member states are certainly developing. But this development seems to run parallel to their relations within the SCO. In my opinion, it would be interesting to look at statistics on, say, bilateral trade and economic cooperation between all the SCO members in aggregate. And it is also within the framework of the SCO. Perhaps these statistics will tell us how to strengthen corporate economic interests.

Of course, it is still too early to talk about the common market of the SCO states. These states still have to complete the stage of reforms, reach a certain and comparable level of development (as was the case in Europe), and then create mechanisms for a unified market that will give a new impetus to their development. And at the same time, make this association able to compete in the global market. But a serious discussion about this, in my opinion, can begin no earlier than in two or three decades. However, today the SCO, if it wants to have an audible voice on the world stage, must show the world the dynamics of its corporate economic development.

To date, the issue of "The SCO and Global Energy Security" has been thoroughly and profoundly analyzed in the special chapter "Prospects for the Expanded Shanghai Cooperation Organization", prepared by D. B. Malysheva for the fundamental collective work on the role of energy in international relations.-

2 According to experts, in January - September 2007, the trade turnover between the two countries increased to $35 billion, compared to $29 billion in 2006. At the same time, the goal is to reach the level of $60-80 billion by 2010. turnover per year. At the same time, exports from China to Russia amounted to $ 20.45 billion. (compared to the same period - an increase of 84.5%), and imports from Russia amounted to $ 13.47 billion. (compared to the same period in 2006 - an increase of 6.8%). At the moment, the Russian Federation is the eighth most important trade partner of China [The second Russian-Chinese..., p. 39].

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It is impossible not to agree with the conclusion of D. B. Malysheva that " the future of the SCO will be determined by a wide variety of dynamics: Russian-Chinese, Chinese-American, and Russian-American relations; prospects for expanding or curtailing the presence of the United States and NATO in Central Asia; challenges from the outside world." Islamist movements; the intensity of the "orange" - revolutionary processes in the region " [ibid., p. 430].

To this list, in my opinion, we should add the dynamics of the development of relations in the Russia-China-India triangle. This approach has already been demonstrated by Japanese researcher Iwasita Akihiro in his two-volume book on the political situation in Eurasia [Eager Eyes...]. The third section of the first volume, entitled "Russia and its Southern Front", consists of articles by Iwasita Akihiro "A new version of Primakov? Russia and "Strategic Triangles in Asia", Nirmala Joshi "India-Russia Relations and the Strategic Situation in Eurasia", Fazal-ur-Rahman "Pakistan's Developing Relations with China, Russia and Central Asia" and, finally, Yoshida Osamu "Eurasia and South Asia in their global context" [ibid., pp. 165-244]. By the way, the same volume contains a large and rather interesting article by the well - known Chinese researcher Sun Chuanzhi "Relations between China and Central Asia", where considerable attention is paid to China's policy in the SCO [ibid., pp. 41-63].

In the expert discussion presented in the collection edited by A.V. Torkunov, an interesting idea about the corporate interests of the SCO was expressed by A.D. Voskresensky: "I get the impression that new regional organizations like the SCO are an attempt to coordinate interests at the regional level without taking into account the interests of those "players" who are in a " separate class"that is, without the United States and Japan, according to the principle: we will try to agree among ourselves, and then we will bring it to the region, and nothing can be done against this consensus decision of ours" [Energy Measurements..., p. 945].

The dynamics of modern international relations are not least determined by the pace of globalization. I liked the wise idea expressed recently by the leading expert in the field of world culture and philosophy of history, Academician Vyacheslav Vsevolodovich Ivanov, who said that in order for humanity to survive, it is necessary today (tomorrow it may be too late), by creating a single governing body, to save the planet Earth. But the process of globalization that we are witnessing and participating in today is developing in a completely different, non-scientific scenario.

As the Director of the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Sergey Rogov noted in his speech at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences: "It is becoming clear that globalization leads not only to greater unity and interdependence of people on the planet, but also to a very large diversification and division of the world. There are winners in this globalization, and there are those who lose" [Vestnik..., p. 783].

In this case, what is the development of the SCO in the context of globalization? To begin with, the SCO is an association of developing countries. "Development consists in transforming society, improving the living conditions of the poor, creating opportunities for everyone to succeed and access health care and education," says Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz [Stiglitz, p.289]. I think we can agree with him, but for the SCO states, development means not only and not just the elimination of poverty, but also the creation of modern developed economies, knowledge economies that feed science and culture, and ensure the sovereign and harmonious development of the information society in a secure environment.

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However, this is in perspective. I would like to touch upon two other issues that science is concerned about today and which, in my opinion, are of no small importance for the development of the SCO. Both problems are environmental. The first is the growing shortage of fresh water. Preoccupied with oil, we sometimes forget that water is more important for human life. According to the Director of the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences V. I. Danilov-Danielyan, the World Commission on Water has stated that more than half of the world's major rivers "are seriously depleted and polluted, degrade and poison the surrounding ecosystems, threatening the health and livelihood of the population dependent on them" [Danilov-Danielyan, p. 110]. Every year in the world, 12 to 17 thousand square kilometers of surface water are polluted, that is, about half of the available fresh water. The main factor of pollution is anthropogenic impact. This is the reason for the lack of fresh water. At the same time, the possibilities for constructing large hydraulic engineering facilities in the United States and Europe are almost exhausted. As for developing countries, the possibilities of constructing such facilities remain there, but they require extensive scientific expertise and well-thought-out solutions in order to avoid extremely negative consequences.

Experts came to the conclusion that "the world's reserves of drinking water, which could be involved in the economy at an acceptable cost, are close to exhaustion. Meanwhile, global population growth will continue for at least another half-century, albeit at a declining pace. However, it is not only the additional population that will increase the need for water. It is equally important that such growth is supported by the desire of all countries, especially developing ones, to improve the quality of life, which is impossible without solving water management problems" [ibid., p. 111].

What is the price of solving the problem? If the current trends continue and the costs continue to go to extensive water use for water supply, sewerage, water treatment, agriculture and environmental protection, this will require $ 180 billion annually until 2025. Only the introduction of the latest technologies can reduce these gigantic costs.

Concluding his analysis, V. I. Danilov-Danielyan says directly that if energy security is now playing a significant role in world politics ,then"in the context of the global water crisis, water security will come to the fore." Water security will be interpreted by the world community as " such a distribution of water and water-intensive products that does not pose a threat to world stability due to water wars, water terrorism, etc." [ibid., p. 114].

The second problem is the problem of socio-economic consequences of desertification in Central Asia. "Desertification is a product of a complex interaction between socio-economic factors (diseases, poverty, hunger, economic instability) and natural factors (drought, water and wind erosion, soil salinization, vegetation degradation, etc.)," scientists at the University of Samarkand define this phenomenon [Alibekov, Alibekova, p. 420]. These factors mutually reinforce each other. About 32% of the world's land area is under threat of desertification. It has already affected 70% of the drylands that are still used for agriculture. Desertification threatens 119 countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, and annually consumes 50 thousand square kilometers of land suitable for exploitation. If you translate this area into a more visual form, you will get a little less than twice the area of the Republic of Macedonia, if you take Europe, and a little more than twice the territory of Israel, if you go back to Asia. The damage caused by this quiet disaster is estimated at $ 42 billion annually.

In the second half of the XX - beginning of the XXI century, most of Central Asia "is characterized by an unfavorable ecological state and the development of all types of opus-

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shyness". The main reason leading to such damage to the natural environment "is a deep discrepancy between the production structure of the national economy that was formed in the past and the capabilities and state of the ecosystem" [ibid., p. 421]. Due to the shortage of water resources, increased secondary salinization, and deterioration of the technical condition of hydro - reclamation systems, the total shortage of agricultural products in the SCO Central Asian states was: in Uzbekistan - 30%, Tajikistan - 18%, Kazakhstan - 30%, and Kyrgyzstan-20%.

Kazakhstan currently has 63 million hectares of degraded pastures ,which " accounts for more than 30% of the grazing area; significant pockets of radionuclide contamination as a result of nuclear tests; economic destabilization, social and medical-biological crisis phenomena. Total losses of natural potential from desertification are comparable to the country's gross national income " [ibid., p. 422]. In Kyrgyzstan, " due to the degradation of pastures, their productivity is reduced by 30-40%." Anthropogenic impact has led to the fact that the area of woodlands has been reduced by half in 50 years. In Tajikistan, out of the total amount of arable land in 759 thousand hectares, including 521.3 thousand irrigated hectares, about 300 thousand hectares of arable land are covered. ga "are in poor condition. Erosion on irrigated and rainfed lands is widespread in the republic. The area of eroded and deflated land is 97.9% of the total area of agricultural land" [ibid.]. In Uzbekistan, where more than 80% of the country's territory is occupied by deserts and semi-deserts, due to active economic activity, more than 60% of the territory is subject to desertification processes [ibid., p. 423].

In the region under review, hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in environmental protection measures over the past 40 years. "However, practice shows," the experts conclude, "that" industry-specific " measures do not have the proper effect in combating desertification. Only an integrated approach to the economic development of the country and region based on scientifically based geographical and ecological recommendations opens up opportunities for managing natural processes " [ibid., p. 425].

It seems that the problem of desertification should take a place in the SCO's economic programs that corresponds to the urgency of the situation. This is one of the SCO's cooperative interests.

In conclusion, I would like to focus on the international problem that has received and continues to receive great attention in the SCO's policy since its foundation. I am referring to the fight against international terrorism. Of course, we must continue our activities in all the areas that we have already set out in order to successfully resist this plague of the twenty-first century. At the same time, this struggle cannot be the main content of international relations, just as a witch hunt cannot be the content of any of the world's great religions.

A curious opinion on this issue was expressed in the journal about the future, which I have already quoted - "Prognoziero". I want to warn you in advance that I do not agree with the author that it is necessary to fight against world Islamism, and not against international terrorism. Nevertheless, the reasoning of this expert on military strategy deserves attention: "Beijing could also join the current struggle against world Islamism, since it is interested in global stability in order to ensure its further economic growth and prevent Islamists from trying to claim influence among the Muslim population in the west of the country. However, it does not do this, but waits for the United States and the Islamists to weaken each other in the course of their irreconcilable struggle, waits and develops its economy fantastically fast, spending many times less on defense than the United States. The winning strategy in this three-pronged battle between Americans, Islamists, and Chinese for global leadership, as is often the case, is not who will fight harder, but who will win.

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you will be able to stay on the sidelines and wait for the other two opponents to finish off each other. If we follow this point of view, then gradually the scales are tipping in favor of China "[Momot, p. 83].

M. Momot tried to explain and reveal his position in two comments posted on the same page. The first of them refers to the stratagem of non-interference-No. 9 from the treatise "36 stratagems" ("Watch the fire from the opposite bank" or "Sitting on the mountain, watch the tigers fight", i.e. no hasty intervention or premature action until the trend develops in your favor, and only then you can act and to reap the benefits "[Harro von Sanger, pp. 174-183].) Here is the commentary: "The United States used this strategy most successfully during the First World War, which it entered only in 1917, when the Entente and Germany and its allies exhausted their forces. Washington would have done the same in World War II, leaving Communists and Nazis to exterminate each other, if the Japanese attack had not forced the United States to abandon its neutrality."

The second comment is related to the inability of Russia to follow the example of China: "Such reflections have nothing to do with Russia. It can't just stand back and wait for the US, China and Islamists to weaken each other, because Russia is the battleground between them (although it is not the only one). Moscow needs to choose a side, with Islamist claims to Russian territory in the Caucasus and potential Chinese claims to the Far East leaving little doubt as to which is the right choice. Russia, unlike the United States, also cannot afford a small land army due to the presence of a land border with China."

A much deeper analysis of the situation is given in an article by the Euro-American analyst Mary Burdman entitled "The Eurasian SCO is taking actions leading to stability" [Burdman, pp. 78-80]. This work was a direct response to the Bishkek summit and military exercises of the six SCO countries in the Chelyabinsk region on August 9-17, 2007. " Eurasian countries, led by Russia and China, are taking unprecedented measures to build an effective system of collective security against the forces of terrorism, separatism and extremism-asymmetric military actions that are now destroying Iraq and Afghanistan and creating new opportunities for a threat to stability in Eurasia." This sounds like a direct answer from Z. Brzezinski, who manages to ignore the obvious facts.

M. Birdman quotes extensively in his article the Beshk Declaration of the SCO Heads of State Summit, in particular the paragraph in which " the heads of state believe that stability and security in Central Asia can be ensured directly by the states of the region themselves on the basis of the international organizations currently established in it. The participating States emphasize the need for collective efforts to counter new challenges and threats" [ibid.]. This document and the speeches delivered at the summit by Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders of other states are not only a program for the development of the SCO, but also a concrete plan for the development of international relations in Central, South, Southeast and East Asia, as well as in the world as a whole.

As for the mentioned regions of Asia, the SCO could come up with a major international initiative: to propose signing the "Asian Charter", which would codify international relations in this part of the world on the basis of international law, UN principles, and Asian collectivist values. This initiative could be worked out in advance with the closest equivalent of the SCO - ASEAN and proceed from the majority of small and medium-sized Asian countries, so that the SCO-ASEAN model of relations is perceived not only as a step towards the development of the SCO-ASEAN partnership.

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codification of comprehensive ties, but also as a call for democratic renewal of the Asian international arena as a whole.

list of literature

Alibekov L. A., Alibekova S. L. Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskie posledstviya protsessa desertovaniya v Tsentral'noi Azii [Socio-economic consequences of the desertification process in Central Asia]. May 2007.

Brzezinski Z. Choice. World Domination or Global Leadership, Moscow, 2006.
Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 77, No. 9, September 2007.

The second Russian-Chinese economic forum at the highest level. Special issue, Moscow, 2007.

Danilov-Danielyan V. I. Voda - strategicheskiy faktor razvitiya ekonomiki Rossii [Water as a strategic factor in the Development of the Russian Economy]. Vestnik Rossiiskoi akademii nauk, vol. 77, No. 2, February 2007.

International relations in Central Asia of the 17th - 18th centuries. Documents and materials. Book 1-2. Moscow, 1989.

Momot M. Voennaya sila i upadok SSHA [Military Power and the Decline of the United States]. Journal of the Future, 2007, No. 2 (10).
Postnikov A.V. Stanovlenie rubezhey Rossii v Tsentral'noi i Srednoi Azii (XVIII - XIX vv.) [Formation of Russia's Borders in Central and Central Asia (XVIII-XIX centuries)]. Moscow, 2007.

Weather forecast. Journal of the Future, 2007, No. 2 (10).
Rossiyskaya gazeta. 7.11.2007.

J. Stiglitz Globalization: Disturbing Moments, Moscow, 2003.
Fortov V. E., Makarov A. A., Mitrova T. A. Global energy security: problems and solutions // Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 77, No. 2, February 2007.

Harro von Sanger. Stratagems, Vol. 1, Moscow, 2004.

Khafizova K. S. Chinese Diplomacy in Central Asia (XIV-XIX centuries). Almaty, 1995.

Shvedov V. G. Historical political geography: an overview of formation, theoretical foundations, practice. Vladivostok. 2006.

Energy Dimensions of International Relations and Security in East Asia Under the general editorship. A. V. Torkunova, Moscow, 2007.

Burdman Mary. Eurasia's SCO takes Action for Stability // Executive Intelligence Review. August 31. 2007. Vol. 34. N 33 - 34.

Eager Eyes Fixed on Eurasia. Vol. I. Russia and Its Neighbors in Crisis. Vol. 2. Russia and Its Eastern Edge // Ed. by Iwashita Akihiro. Sapporo. 2007.

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