Olexandr Honcharenko, CISSS President, Prof. * * * Regional security challenges together with the international terrorism today are the major threats to European and transatlantic security. The strategic question of XXI century is whether the liberal democracy could control these disastrous regional conflicts, especially in CEE and in broader "arc of instability" stretching from Balkans to the Philippines. Preventive approach to the international politics is extremely important today. Prevention is a tool number one of the effective conflict management. It is much easier to prevent the conflict or acute crisis than to manage the conflicts after they have escalated. No less important is the cost-effectiveness question: the budget of only two days of operation "Desert Storm" or resent operation in Iraq was equal to this one of all UN peacekeeping operation worldwide for a year.1 Thus the conflict prevention2 approach implicitly corresponds to the demands of cost effective security organization. But the studies related to crisis prevention, preventive diplomacy or preemptive contingency planning are still very sketchy and fragmentary. From the other point of view it is quite стр. 51 obvious that prevention is the key feature of modern strategy. In the National Security Strategy of the USA adopted in September 2002 a heavy accent had been made on the preventive measures and preemptive actions. "United States can no longer solely rely on a reactive posture as we have in the past... the United States will if necessary act preemptively".3 The European Security Strategy "A Secure Europe in a Better World" (December, 2003) especially stresses the necessity "to act before a crisis occurs. Conflict prevention and threat prevention cannot start too early".4 Nevertheless the absence of system approach to conflict prevention, lack of foresight and effective intelligence in international relations, including conflict dynamics, still prevail. International organizations a ... Читать далее