G. M. LOKSHIN

Candidate of Historical Sciences

Center for Vietnam and ASEAN Studies IDV RAS

Keywords: Vietnam, 12th CPV Congress, renewal, multi-vector approach, South China Sea, territorial disputes

The 12th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), held in Hanoi on January 21-28, was an important historical milestone in the 30-year path of comprehensive and comprehensive renewal of Vietnam, which began with the fateful decisions of the VI Party Congress in 1986. The congress attracted the attention of many governments, political parties, scientists and various public circles in various countries for a number of reasons.

In many countries, interest in the CPV congress began to manifest itself long before its opening , as the pre-congress discussion unfolded in the country, and became especially noticeable on the eve of the congress and during its work. And this interest was not accidental.

AN UNPRECEDENTED CONGRESS IN THE HISTORY OF THE CPV

First of all, the congress focused on the politics and fate of a large, dynamically developing Asian country, which Vietnam has become over the past period-a worthy and respected member of the world community, playing an important role both in Southeast Asia (SE) and in the entire Asia - Pacific region (APR).

Secondly, the XII Congress was to elect the General Secretary of the CPV Central Committee and a new composition of the entire Central Committee, the Politburo and the Secretariat of the CPV Central Committee, as well as nominate candidates for the three main posts in the country - the president, Prime Minister and Chairman of the National Assembly. Such significant simultaneous changes in the leadership of the party and the country in a well-thought-out and organized manner, and most importantly - while maintaining the unity of the party ranks, were unprecedented not only for the CPV, but for any political party in the world in general. Most of those who followed the work of the congress admitted that it was held in an atmosphere of unity and ended quite successfully.

A week before its opening, Alexander Vuvingh, a professor at the Center for Security Studies in the Asia-Pacific Region in Honolulu, remarked that "party conventions are for Vietnam in a sense the same as presidential elections for the United States: they decide who will be the next leader and what will be his policy." ¹

Many observers were surprised by the scale and open nature of the comprehensive preparations for the congress, which lasted almost two years. Indeed, it was preceded by a broad discussion on all vital aspects of domestic and foreign policy. It was attended by party and state figures, various institutions, universities and research centers, and many public organizations. Therefore, objectively minded observers had every reason to say that the decisions adopted at the congress accumulated the will and creative thought of the entire party and broad strata of the people.

For example, Jonathan London, one of the most attentive American observers of Vietnam's political life, wrote about this back in November 2015, although he does not always speak with friendly positions towards the CPV. He now teaches at the University of Hong Kong. Usually dissatisfied with the level of democracy in Vietnam, this time J. R. R. Tolkien was the first person to speak out.London noted that in recent years, the political culture in the country has become different, more open and diverse. The space for open political discussions in society has significantly expanded, despite some remaining restrictions.² In particular, he warned that there would be no answer to the question about the new leadership of the CPV until the very last minute. And he was right: the intrigue, indeed, persisted almost until the last session of the congress.

THE FOCUS IS ON CHANGING THE PARTY'S LEADERSHIP

A propaganda campaign was launched in the media of the United States and other Western countries, especially in the circles of the Vietnamese diaspora in these countries, around the election of the new leadership of the party and the state. It is characterized by two aspects: either absolute ignorance and lack of understanding of the process of making major decisions, which has been established in the leadership of the CPV for many years, or attempts from the outside to introduce an internal split and confrontation into it. But, most likely, it was a desire to pass off the very desired split in the party and Vietnamese society by unfriendly forces as actually existing.

As one of the most respected experts on Southeast Asian issues, Honorary Professor of the Australian Defense Academy Carl Thayer, rightly noted, on the eve of the XXII Congress, the foreign media paid the lion's share of attention to the struggle for the post of General Secretary of the CPV between Nguyen Phu Trong, who held this post, and Nguyen Tan Dung, the Prime Minister, who applied for it.

At the same time, the emphasis was placed on certain ideological differences between them. In fact, as it turned out at the congress, it was not so much about these differences as about the authoritarian or collective leadership of the party and the government. Dung, Thayer noted, has been criticized for a number of serious shortcomings, including his inability to curb corruption, poor economic management, and inability to work in^a team3 (emphasis added).

A colleague of K. Thayer, the aforementioned J. R. R. Tolkien.London explained that critics of Prime Minister Dung accused him of increasing the wealth and influence of his family members and close supporters, and of conniving with the closest investors, including Chinese ones. He was considered responsible for a large number of bankruptcies and risky lending, which brought the country a huge public debt. The list of claims against him, in his opinion, is long4. In an interview with CNN, J.London claimed: "Dung was a political dissident and was going to appear before the country as a reformer and something like a democrat, but was accused in the party and outside of it of power-seeking, corruption and fictitious reforms." ⁵

Supporters of Premier Dung, as Professor A. Wuvingh said in an interview with Reuters, considered him an active reformer who promoted various institutional reforms on the principle of "more market, less state". But his critics, on the contrary, emphasized the wide gap between what he said in his many speeches and what was often done in practice. He was accused of building the so-called "crony capitalism" in the country, of being ready to sacrifice national interests for the sake of his own interests, his relatives and people close to him. His name has been linked to major corruption scandals surrounding the bankruptcy of the largest state-owned corporations Vinashin and Vinalin, which in 2012-2013 led to the loss of many millions of dollars.⁶

The authoritative English magazine "Economist" wrote:: "In Vietnamese politics today, there is no place for an autocratic leader, but only one who relies on collective consent." ⁷

Frederick Burke, managing partner on the Vietnamese side of the large law firm Baker & McKenzie in Hanoi and leading many American contracts in Vietnam, said in an interview with the New York Times that the soft transition of leadership to a new generation at the last CPV congress was inspiring for him, as it clearly showed political stability in the country. and respect for the rule of law. "For a person who lives here," he said, " this is exactly what you need. We don't need a continuation of the virtual civil war"⁸. In his opinion, there was much more agreement in the party than the foreign media or some political observers imagined, and Chong as a leader never showed any reactionary or conservative tendencies. Foreign media outlets, he said, "are trying to play out some drama, but its scenario does not correspond to reality at all."

THE CONGRESS VOTED FOR STABILITY

Along with personnel issues, the question of the future policy and prospects of the Vietnamese economy in the coming years also attracted a lot of international attention.

"Vietnam," said Ren Yunyang, director of the East Asia Institute at the National University of Singapore, at an international seminar in Hong Kong, " is still a country with a relatively low level of economic development. Therefore, if he prematurely establishes a Western-style democracy, it will only lead to the formation of an oligarchy."

This is the position that Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the CPV Central Committee, has recently taken. According to the Singapore expert, he advocated a "pro-growth status quo" designed to balance external relations and consolidate collective leadership, which was often violated in the last years of the Dung administration. " ⁹

The American Associated Press agency, reporting on the speech at the opening of the congress of the General secretary of the CPV Central Committee, Nguyen Phu Trong, emphasized that he called for the continuation of the "complete transformation" of the economy, which, according to him, went in the right direction, but did not achieve some of the goals set and is still poorly coordinated and coordinated. He stated that the state should take over the leadership of the private sector, ensuring fair competition and curbing bribery and nepotism.¹⁰

The same agency, in a post-congress report from Hanoi, quoted Nguyen Phu Trong as saying at the final meeting: "A country without discipline will quickly turn into chaos and instability... We need a balance between democracy, law and public order." The agency also added a statement by the re-elected general Secretary at a press conference in Hanoi after the congress closed: "One-party rule by the Vietnamese Communists is much better than authoritarianism disguised as democracy."¹¹.

The 12th Congress of the CPV, stressed the Cuban agency Prensa Latina, marks an important historical milestone in the comprehensive and comprehensive renewal of Vietnam, which is being carried out with the help of

1986 An article on the agency's website dated January 19, 2016 states that the Communist Party of Vietnam is holding its XII Congress, "the main theme of which is the development of Vietnam as a modern industrial country. With the participation of 1,510 delegates representing more than 4.5 million party members, the congress is held under the motto: "strengthening and building a clean party."

As can be seen, foreign politicians and experts believed that it was Prime Minister Dung who inspired and organized the accelerated liberalization of the economy. He was opposed to the General Secretary of the CPV Central Committee, Nguyen Phu Trong, as a conservative and an adherent of outdated theoretical dogmas. However, after reading the two reports of the CPV Central Committee to the XII Congress published long before the congress, evaluating the speeches of the delegates and the decisions taken, some of them were forced to change their minds. They came to the conclusion that even under the new leadership, no radical changes are expected in the main directions and priorities of the country's economic development.

Rajiv Biswas, Chief Asia-Pacific economist at one of the leading Swiss banks, expressed a slightly different point of view before the opening of the congress. "Dung," he said, " is considered a reform advocate, and he is expected to continue the program of economic liberalization, as well as the process of building closer political and economic relations with the United States. He made headlines in 2014 when he demanded the removal of a Chinese drilling rig from the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Vietnam in the South China Sea (SCM)"¹².

According to him, Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the CPV Central Committee, is expected to take a more cautious approach to economic reforms, promote a state-led planned economic development model that will suspend the reform of state-owned enterprises, and take a more restrained approach to building Vietnam's ties with the United States13. The new leader, the expert believes, will need to keep open the" window of opportunity " for Vietnam, which is becoming the main Asian hub of industrial exports. While this transformation continues, the new leader will support the process and will need to continue liberalizing the economy and improving its competitiveness.¹⁴

At the same time, the Japanese newspaper Japan Times wrote that Vietnam's socio-economic development plan for the next 5 years "values the importance of the private sector of the economy, calling for accelerating the process of privatization of state-owned enterprises." This newspaper, citing an assessment by the International Monetary Fund, reported that if the country's annual GDP growth targets of 7% are met and per capita income increases in the next 5 years, Vietnam will become one of the fastest growing economies in the APR ¹⁵.

Christian Levis, an expert on Vietnam from the Eurasian Advisory Group, which is headquartered in New York, noted that after the 12th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Vietnam will continue to implement economic reforms and its established trade policy. In particular, according to this expert, the new leadership of the country will maintain the obligations assumed by Vietnam to implement the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and other trade agreements, including the Free Trade Agreement with the European Union. For investors, Vietnam's stable political system is very attractive, especially when compared to the turmoil of its neighbors, such as Thailand, with its countless military coups and power shifts over the past decade. ¹⁶

"The problem is not with the reforms that Dung was implementing," said Murray Hiebert, a prominent American expert on Southeast Asia at the Center for International and Strategic Studies in Washington (CSIS), " but with corruption, which has reached unprecedented levels, even though it was discussed a lot at the previous CPV congress. Many ardent supporters of Dung are probably unaware of the widespread hostility to him and his people, not only because of their personal enrichment at the expense of others, but also because of the sale (as they believe) of large territories to their northern neighbors, who now control and run the main mines on the Central Plateau. in the entire South China Sea and islands, regardless of whether there are residents there or not. All this is extremely outrageous for those who have been fighting for many years to become an independent and sovereign nation. " ¹⁷

"Reforms in Vietnam continue despite critical review of the party congress"-under this headline, the CSIS Department of Southeast Asia in Washington published a detailed analysis of the results of the XII CPV Congress. It is noted that "regardless of who will be in charge, Hanoi's economic reform program remains the same: to achieve GDP growth, on average, by 6.5-7% per year and increase per capita income by 2020 from $2,172 to $3,200-3,500. The planned growth of the economy in the current year by 6.7 - 6.8% makes Vietnam second in the world, after India, in terms of economic growth. The implementation of these goals will depend on the new leadership that comes to power. " ¹⁸

A COURSE FOR PEACE AND COOPERATION

The pre-congress discussion in Vietnam focused on many issues of the international situation and foreign policy. Therefore, the changes in the leadership had a certain geopolitical aspect.

Analyzing the results of the last congress, many Western experts on security issues in Southeast Asia stressed that the decisions of the congress will have important consequences for the security of both Vietnam and the entire region.

On January 27, 2016, the New York Times wrote that, according to most experts, the re-election of 71-year-old Nguyen Phu

Chonga is likely to slow Vietnam's transition to a more open, market-based economy somewhat, but it is unlikely to disrupt its strategic balance in relations with China and the United States. "Chong is an old party guard leader who was formed in a Soviet-style economy and for many years looked to neighboring China, Vietnam's main trading partner, as a crucial strategic and ideological ally. ... However, his visit to the White House last July underscored the established view among the party elite that improving relations with the United States also serves Vietnam's national interests and is a significant counterweight to China's influence in the region. It was Chong who introduced Vietnam to the Trans-Pacific Partnership ,a US-led trade bloc of a dozen Pacific Rim states, from which China was excluded."

"Dung was more categorical in his criticism of China," notes Murray Heibert. Chong has not been as harsh in his criticism of China's behavior, but no one expects him to back down in the face of rising tensions in the South China Sea. And despite their different styles, both admit that the party's fate "depends on continuing economic reforms and global diversification of its ties." ¹⁹

The Economist magazine article mentioned earlier noted that some of the current Vietnamese elite fear that the forced rapprochement with the United States, pursued by Prime Minister Dung, will push China into an even more dangerous confrontation with Vietnam.²⁰

Many observers in the Western media have limited themselves to a very cursory analysis of the new composition of the Vietnamese leadership, calculating how many "pro" and "anti" Chinese there are. More competent experts, such as Zakaria Abuza*, believe that there simply cannot be firm "pro-Chinese" in Vietnamese politics, but there are significant differences in the strategy of doing business with China. Many in the CCP, he believes, still believe that their historical ties and ideological affinity with the CCP can help resolve the crisis, although this has been proven many times to be the case.

In a lengthy interview with the American agency "Bloomberg", Professor Z. Abuza said: "The debate is about the strategy of countering Chinese aggression. There are people in the party who are still wary of overly antagonizing China."²¹.

At a time when much of the US media has focused on pushing forward the so-called "pro-China" faction in the CPV, Zakaria Abuza argues that Vietnam will continue to move along a fine diplomatic line, balancing between China and the US. At the same time, he drew attention to the fact that the introduction of a new Chinese drilling platform HYSI-943 exactly one day before the opening of the congress in Hanoi, although this time not directly into the EEZ of Vietnam, but into the not yet demarcated part of the Gulf of Tonkin, on which negotiations are taking place, was a clear reminder of how much fragile is the world and how quickly a big fire can break out there ²².

Bloomberg also quoted former U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam Raymond Burghardt as saying that there would be no major changes in Vietnam's already established foreign policy. Regardless of which faction gets the upper hand at the congress. The new leadership, in his opinion, will not follow any other path.

Another former US Ambassador to Vietnam (2001 - 2004), J. Michalak, who holds the post of first vice-president of the US-ASEAN Business Council, in an interview with Voice of America, noted that Vietnam-China relations immediately fell by several degrees after the crisis around the drilling platform in May 2014. "And I don't think," he said, " that this situation will change soon, regardless of what kind of government will be formed after the congress."²³. The Washington Post also wrote about this on the opening day of the XXII Congress, emphasizing that the expert community is confident that no matter who is elected to the top post, Vietnam's entry into the TPP and the course to improve relations with the United States will continue. " ²⁴

The above-mentioned CSIS Southeast ASIA Department report on the results of the XII CPV Congress, in particular, states that the United States and Vietnam have made great progress in partnership in recent years, and there is every reason to believe that the new leadership will support deeper cooperation in trade and investment - the main driving force of bilateral relations in the coming years25. The report also notes that three of the four top members of the CPV Central Committee Politburo elected by the congress-party leader Chong, Minister of Public Security Tran Dai Quang, and Deputy National Assembly President Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan-have all made business visits to the United States in the past year.

Quang met with a wide range of government officials in Washington last March and negotiated judicial and law enforcement cooperation, which helped pave the way for Chong's historic visit to the United States in July 2015.He also met with many lawmakers and urged them to support Vietnam's participation in the TPP.

Ngan, who is regarded by many in Washington as a rising star, is no stranger to the United States: she visited twice in 2012-2015 and was actively involved in discussions on a number of sensitive issues related to TPP participation and the Mekong Development Initiative.²⁶

All this, according to the extensive report of the CSIS Department of Southeast Asian Studies, can be considered as favorable events for US-Vietnamese relations. It is clear that with all the possible disagreements of the leaders on the internal policy of the party, the pain of-

* Zakaria Abuza-Professor at the Military College of the US Naval Academy, a well-known expert on Vietnam, who has been closely studying the Vietnamese leadership for many years. author's note).

Most of them agree on the importance of promoting cooperation with the United States in the common interests of both sides. Many in Hanoi believe that Chong's attitude toward Washington has improved significantly since his visit to the United States27 last ^year.

2016 may bring a new breakthrough in trade and economic relations and investment in the United States after the entry into force of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement. The question, however, is whether it will be ratified in 2016, or whether this procedure will be delayed for a long time. The volume of bilateral trade in 2014 exceeded $36 billion, and in 2015 it was expected at least $40 billion.²⁸

Professor Z. Abuza drew attention to the fact that the newly elected Central Committee included three highly qualified and US-educated diplomats who were the architects of closer relations with the US, Japan and other countries in the region. Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh has been particularly vocal in criticizing China's actions, and Beijing is certainly not very happy to see him as a member of the Politburo and vice premier of the government. He advocates close cooperation with the West and easing dependence on China. Therefore, they hope that the current trend of Vietnam towards rapprochement with the West will not stop. His two deputies, who also served on the Central Committee, are active supporters of deeper integration with the West and a more active role of the United States in regional security.²⁹

Professor Karl Thayer noted that after the 12th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Vietnam's foreign policy will continue to have three main goals: economic growth, international integration, and strengthening its defense capability. In his opinion, Vietnam will continue to step up the process of integrating the country into the international community, especially into the global economy.³⁰

If the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is ratified and enters into force this year or next, the number of States with which Vietnam has free trade agreements, including 15 from the Group of 20, will increase to 50. This will make Vietnam the only ASEAN State to have such agreements with all the world's major economies.³¹ The adoption of an active and even aggressive integration strategy shows that Vietnam is firmly on this path, waiting for new opportunities that it will not fail to take advantage of.

The XII Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, according to most observers, also convincingly showed that Vietnam will continue to modernize its defense and will not stop international cooperation in this area, although it may slow down somewhat for financial reasons.

The main concern of the party, Zakaria Abuza believes in this regard, is how to maintain and strengthen its leadership role in the country and at the same time protect itself from "color revolutions". This leads to an increased focus on internal security, which was not the case before.³²

American observers noted that the Minister of Defense, General Ngo Xuan Leet, who was elected to the Politburo of the CPV Central Committee, is a career political worker with no experience in operational command and control of troops. The promotion of a political commissar to such a post is considered more appropriate for the strategy of "people's war" and increasing the role of the army in protecting the social order and political stability in the country. The Vietnamese People's Army (VNA) has undergone fundamental changes over the past decade, according to American observers, and is now considered the most efficient army in Southeast Asia. The Vietnamese Navy is also modern and combat-ready in the region.

In his speech at the XII Congress, Lieutenant General Lit said that he would seek further modernization of the army and continue international military cooperation. The VNA is expected to publish a new Vietnam Defense White Paper this year, but observers expect that there will be no significant changes to the "Three No's" policy formulated in the 2009 Defense White Paper, and all three "No's" will remain, namely: "No to military blocs", "No to military blocs". foreign military bases", "No to alliances with one country against another" ³³. Although the modernization programs of the Navy and Air Force will continue, it will not be so fast under the new leadership of the party. At the same time, Z. Abuza rightly considers it important that senior General* Nguyen Ti Vinh remained in the Central Committee, and, therefore, in the post of Deputy Minister of Defense. A professional military intelligence officer, Vinh is undoubtedly considered one of the main strategists of the VNA and a leading advocate of military cooperation with Russia, the United States, Japan, India, Israel and the countries of ^the region34.

REACTION IN CHINA TO THE RESULTS OF THE XII CONGRESS OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF CHINA

In China, the work of the XII Congress of the Communist Party of China was especially closely observed. Chinese President Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, was the first to send a welcome telegram to Nguyen Phu Trong, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, congratulating him on his election for a second term. In it, he reiterated that China and Vietnam are good neighbors, connected by mountains and rivers, have a common political system and follow the same path of development. Their destinies are increasingly intertwined, forming a community of shared destiny of great strategic importance.³⁵

Referring to China's position on the XII Congress of the Communist Party of China, the British BBC agency suggests proceeding from the fact that in our time, no large country, if it has the slightest opportunity to influence the development of a neighboring country, especially such an important one as Vietnam, will not miss this opportunity.

But we can hardly assume that

* General rank after Major General and before Lieutenant General (author's note).

China decided to reintroduce its HD-943 drilling rig to a point in Bac Bo Bay (Tonkin) the day before the opening of the congress, in order to influence the election of a more acceptable CPV leadership. In Beijing, it was well understood that they would not achieve this in this way.

Why was this done? Why did Chinese planes need to make 46 flights in the direction of the Spratly Archipelago between January 9 and 20, crossing the Vietnam air control zone without warning? At the same time, they made three test landings on a strip built on an artificially created island on the site of the Fiery Cross Reef, occupied by China in 1988.

And why did Xi Jinping announce in advance, without waiting for the end of the congress, that he was sending his special representative to Hanoi? The simple answer is that this was done to demonstrate to the world that China played a role in this whole event. And only ³⁶. It should be noted, however, that at the press conference before the congress, a member of the PB of the Central Committee of the CPV, head of the Central Committee of the CPV. The propaganda department of the CPV Central Committee, Dinh Thae Huynh, in response to this question, categorically stated that "China could not have influenced the XII Congress of the CPV in any way"³⁷.

Japanese observers also pointed out that there was no evidence of direct Chinese influence on the selection of the CPV leadership. But it was clear that Premier Dung's candidacy was "least liked in Beijing" because he usually spoke harshly on the South China Sea and declared that "he would not trade the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity for eternal friendship with China." ³⁸

On the opening day of the congress, January 21, the Xinhua news Agency emphasized in its comments that Vietnam should not pursue its diplomatic goals at any cost, including "changing the traditional relations with China that were so hard to re-establish", and it should not negatively affect the common interests of the parties.

China's Global Times (the English version of the People's Daily) pointed out that the re-election of the Communist Party leader indicates that the main trend in the CPV calls for more careful implementation of reforms in a country seeking modernization. It may also serve as a reminder to China's neighbor, which has a similar political system and is on the same path of development, that the peoples of both countries prefer a more realistic and flexible course of reform.³⁹

At a press conference on February 18, 2016, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hong Li said :" As good neighbors, friends, comrades and partners of Vietnam, we want to move the comprehensive strategic partnership to a new stage based on stability, forward-thinking and good neighborliness. We also want to work together with Vietnam to establish the necessary control over disputes at sea in a way that preserves stability."

On February 29, 2016, in Beijing, Xi Jinping received Hoang Binh Quan, Special Envoy of the General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, Head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, who was sent to China to " directly inform the CPC leadership about the results of the 12th CPC Congress." According to the Vietnam News Agency, in his message, Nguyen Phu Trong expressed deep gratitude to the Chinese leader for congratulating him and sending his representative to the congress.

After familiarizing the Chinese leader with the results of the congress, the Vietnamese guest said that the CPV " firmly stands on the positions of Marxism-Leninism and is loyal to the ideas of Ho Chi Minh. Its abiding goal is national independence and socialism. " ⁴⁰ In response, Xi Jinping "highly appreciated" the dispatch of the CPV special Envoy. According to Xinhua, he said that China and Vietnam share the same fate as the Communist parties of both countries. He also stressed that " the development of Sino-Vietnamese relations is our historical responsibility, meeting the fundamental interests of both countries and peoples." The Chinese leader did not address any specific issues.

Xi Jinping reiterated that the Chinese Party and government attach great importance to Sino-Vietnamese relations, and steadily and resolutely develop long-term and strong relations with Vietnam in accordance with the 16 characters and 4 good principles⁴¹. The mention of this formula was supposed to mean a return of relations between the two countries to the state in which they were before the crisis of 2014.

However, the Vietnamese agency in its message added that zav. The Ministry of Defense of the CPV Central Committee outlined Vietnam's view on the situation in the South China Sea and suggested that "both sides respect each other's legitimate interests, strictly adhere to the general agreements of the top leaders of the two parties and states and all agreements reached", do not take any unilateral actions that change the existing situation, complicate and expand disputes, do not We militarized the situation and together maintained peace and stability in the East Sea.⁴²

According to prof. Zakaria Abuzah, China should have been pleased that Nguyen Phu Trong kept his post. But Chong, too, he said, has changed a lot lately. When he came to office, many were wary because he had a reputation for being a staunch supporter of China. But in the future, everything turned out to be not so clear.⁴³ This was already evident in the exchange of pleasantries between the two leaders after the congress.

RUSSIA LOOKS FORWARD TO DEVELOPING STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH VIETNAM

Unlike China, Russia does not have such links between the ruling parties as the CCP and the CPV. But the interest in the work and results of the XII Congress, especially among the Russian scientific community, was also great, as evidenced by a very representative round-table discussion at the IDV RAS on October ^{5, 201644}

The United Russia Party faction in the State Duma of the Russian Federation, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and many public organizations addressed the congress with greetings and best wishes of success. The message of greetings to the Congress of the Russian-Vietnamese Friendship Society reads in part:: "The Russian Federation and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam have a comprehensive strategic partnership. In the current international situation, this is an important factor in ensuring peace and security, both in Southeast Asia and in the entire Asia-Pacific region."

Russian Ambassador to Vietnam Konstantin Volkov held a special press conference in Hanoi on the eve of the congress. Answering questions from a popular online publication in Vietnam VietNam.net he specifically said: "I am confident that regardless of the composition of the governing bodies that will be elected by the Congress, the new leadership of Vietnam will continue its course towards comprehensive and sustainable development of the country's economy, increasing its competitiveness, solving social problems and significantly expanding foreign economic relations." ⁴⁵

The Ambassador also noted that despite the difficult international situation, Vietnam has made important progress in building a " market economy oriented towards socialism." He expressed confidence that Russia will continue to be among Vietnam's main partners, and Russian-Vietnamese relations will not undergo any changes. "On the contrary, I see an excellent chance for developing our relations of comprehensive strategic partnership, for successfully implementing large-scale projects in such key areas of cooperation as nuclear energy, oil and gas exploration and production, banking, and military-technical cooperation." ⁴⁶

* * *

So, numerous responses in various countries to the results of the 12th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam held in Hanoi confirm that it has become the most important event in the social and political life of Vietnam. The course of renewal and openness outlined by the party leadership 30 years ago, integration into the global and regional economy, and implementation of a multi-vector and versatile foreign policy of peace and cooperation with all countries of the world community remains unchanged and will continue under the new leadership of the party and the country.

^{Vuving Alexander L.} 1 Who will lead Vietnam? The country faces a particularly difficult choice // The Diplomat. January 16, 2016.

² http://RFA (viet). November 24, 2015.

³ Voice of Vietnam, VOV(world). 27.01.2016.

^{London Jonathan D.} 4 Vietnam's leadership succession struggle. A pressure-packed political succession has entered its final stages -http://RFA (viet). January 14, 2016.

⁵ Hong Kong CNN. 26.01.2016.

^{Vuving Alexander L.} 6 Op. cit.

⁷ The Economist. January 15, 2016.

^{Ivesjan Mike.} 8 Vietnam's Communist Party Gives Leader Additional 5-Year Term -NYTimes.com. January 27, 2016.

⁹ Cit. by: Global Times. January 31, 2016.

¹⁰ http://news.asiaone.com/news/asia/vietnam-party-chief-calls-stronger-state-led-economy-con gress-starts#sthash.uwB9qOKY.dpuf

¹¹ Associated Press in Hanoi. January 28, 2016.

¹² See for more details: Lokshin G. M. Yuzhno-Kitayskoe more: ostrov razdora [The South China Sea: Islands of Discord]. 2015, N 9. P. 2-8. (Lokshin G. M. 2015. Yuzno-Kitaiskoe more... // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 9) (in Russian)

¹³ CNBC.com/21/01/2016

¹⁴ Ibidem.

¹⁵ Japan Times. January 26, 2016.

¹⁶ Bloomberg. January 18, 2016.

¹⁷ VOA (world). 23.01.2016.

¹⁸ Vietnam's reform drive goes on, despite testy Party Congress // CSIS, Asia Staff. February 2, 2016.

¹⁹ The Associated Press. January 20, 2016.

²⁰ The Economist...

²¹ Bloomberg....

²² Ibidem.

²³ VOA (world)...

²⁴ The Washington Post. January 20, 2016.

²⁵ Vietnam's Reform Drive goes on...

²⁶ For more information, see: Boyarkina O. A. Indus and Mekong-arena of international water conflicts / / Asia and Africa today. 2016, N 4. (Boyarkina O.A. 2016. Indus and Mekong - arena mezhdunarodnykh konfliktov // Aziya i Afrika segodnya. N 4) (in Russian)

²⁷ Ibidem.

²⁸ Vietnam.net. 15.03.2016.

²⁹ Bloomberg...

³⁰ VOV (world). 27.01.2016.

³¹ http://Vietnamexpress. 01.10.2015.

^{Abuza Zachary} 32 and Nguyen Nhat Anh. Asia-Pacific, Territorial and Law of the Sea disputes. Little fallout: Vietnam's security policy after the 12th Congress of the Vietnam Communist Party. February 28, 2016.ZACHARY ABUZA

³³ Ibidem.

³⁴ Ibid.

³⁵ Xinhua. 29.01.2016.

³⁶ VVS (in Viet Nam). 31.01.2016.

³⁷ http://RFA/11.02.2016

³⁸ Nikkei Asian Review. January 29, 2016.

³⁹ Global Times. January 31, 2016.

⁴⁰ Thong tan xa Viet Nam. 01.03.2016 (Vietnam Telegraph Agency).

⁴¹ Xinhua. 01.03.2016.

⁴² Thong tan xa Viet Nam 01 03 2016

^{Abuza Zachary} 43 and Nguyen Nhat Anh. Op. cit.

⁴⁴ http://IFES-RAS.ru/09/02/2016.

⁴⁵ http://Vietnam.net. 23.01.2016.

⁴⁶ Ibidem.

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